Tropical Storm Fay intensified rapidly over the open Atlantic on September 20, 2026, with the National Hurricane Center issuing three successive forecast discussions that raised the storm's estimated wind speed from 40 knots to 55 knots across a single day.
Fay, designated the sixth Atlantic tropical cyclone of 2026 and carrying identifier AL062026, was located near 34.4°N, 32.7°W by 9:00 PM GMT, moving north-northeast at 5 knots. The NHC, based in Miami, Florida, said the storm is compact, with tropical-storm-force winds reaching only about 40 nautical miles from its center.
Forecaster Cangialosi, writing Discussion Number 4 at 9:00 AM GMT, set Fay's initial winds at 40 knots, with satellite intensity estimates ranging from 35 to 47 knots at that time. By 3:00 PM GMT, forecasters Katz and Pasch issued Discussion Number 5, which placed the storm's intensity at 50 knots. That assessment drew on UW-CIMSS objective estimates of 39 to 52 knots, a TAFB Dvorak fix of T3.0 equating to 45 knots, and a separate ASCAT pass that recorded a peak wind vector of 43 knots. In Discussion Number 6, issued at 9:00 PM GMT, Katz and Pasch raised the intensity further to 55 knots, citing a TAFB Dvorak fix of T3.5 at 55 knots and UW-CIMSS estimates of 45 to 51 knots. Infrared satellite imagery at that time showed cloud tops cooling to near minus 70 degrees Celsius (minus 94 degrees Fahrenheit).
The NHC said deep convection was increasing near Fay's center and in curved bands on its northern side. A moist environment, combined with a mid- to upper-level trough approaching the storm, was expected to allow further intensification for 12 to 24 hours, with Fay potentially reaching hurricane strength on the night of September 20. The NHC set its intensity forecast slightly above model guidance, citing Fay's improved structure and baroclinic support from the trough.
The trough was forecast to lift out on Monday, September 21, 2026, after which wind shear was expected to increase and dry air to intrude, halting strengthening. A low- to mid-level ridge building north of Fay on September 21 was forecast to turn the storm southwestward and accelerate it in that direction. The NHC said Fay was expected to become a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday, September 22, 2026, and to dissipate at 6:00 PM GMT on September 25, 2026.