The National Hurricane Center opened advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five at 10:00 AM CDT on August 31, 2026, warning that tropical storm conditions are closing in on the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana shorelines.
The system, designated AL052026 and previously tracked as AL97, sits over the northern Gulf of America. It is generating a limited area of showers and thunderstorms, the NHC said. Scatterometer readings taken overnight showed the western side of the circulation was poorly defined, and Air Force Hurricane Hunters confirmed the center remains elongated and without clear structure.
The NHC set an initial intensity of 30 knots, which forecasters described as possibly generous given the system's disorganized state. Its motion is west-northwestward at roughly 4 knots, and track models broadly agree it will hold that heading over the next day or so. The center is expected to move onshore sometime during the 24-to-36-hour window, placing landfall around September 1, 2026.
Sea surface temperatures beneath the storm exceed 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit), and deep-layer wind shear is assessed as fairly weak, the NHC said. Some strengthening before landfall is anticipated if the system can develop a more cohesive structure. Because of its small size, the storm is prone to rapid intensity changes, and the NHC placed its intensity forecast at the top of the available guidance range.
The system is forecast to go post-tropical by September 2, 2026, and to dissipate entirely around September 3. Heavy rainfall is expected across Upper Texas, east-central Texas, and far southwestern Louisiana on September 1 and 2, with flash flooding considered likely, particularly in urban areas. Forecaster Reinhart authored the initial discussion.